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HDB resale price accelerated its decline, transaction volume improved

HDB Resale

HDB resale price accelerated its decline, transaction volume improved

Posted on 09 Apr 2015

Observations:

  1. Decline in resale prices accelerated in March. HDB resale prices dropped by 0.8% in March 2015 compared to February 2015.  The price drop was driven by HDB 3, 4 and 5 Room Flats at NEGATIVE 0.9%, NEGATIVE 1.1%, and NEGATIVE 0.5% respectively. Resale price for HDB Executive Flats increased by 1.0%.




According to the SRX Property Price Index for HDB Resale:

  • Year-on-year, prices dropped 6.6% from March 2014;
  • Prices have dropped 1.8% in 2015 with March accounting for 0.8% of the total quarterly decline;
  • Prices declined 11.1% since the peak in April 2013;
  • Price change in Feb 2015 is revised from a 0.6% decrease to a 0.5% decrease;


According to the SRX Property Price Sub-Indices for HDB Resale:

  • The HDB Resale prices decreased in both mature and non-mature estates;
  •        In March 2015, HDB resale prices decreased 0.9% and 0.8% in mature estates and non-mature estates, respectively.
  • Year-on-year, prices in mature estates declined 4.8% from March 2014;
  • Year-on-year, prices in non-mature estates declined 7.9% from March 2014;

 

  1. Resale volume improved. According to HDB resale data compiled by SRX Property, 1,349 HDB resale flats were sold in March 2015, a 17.5% increase from 1,148 transacted units in February 2015.

  • Year-on-year, resale volume decreased by 5% compared to 1,420 units resold in March 2014;
  • Resale volume is down 63.0% compared to its peak of 3,649 units in May 2010.
  1. Overall median Transaction Over X-Value (T-O-X) remained negative. According to SRX Property, HDB prices continue to face downward pressure and negative market sentiment in March 2015.  The median T-O-X for HDB measures whether people are overpaying or underpaying the SRX Property X-Value estimated market value.

  • Overall Median T-O-X was NEGATIVE $3,000 in March 2015, a $1,000 increase from NEGATIVE $4,000 in February 2015;
  • Median T-O-X for HDB 3, 4, and 5 Room flats were negative while Executive flats saw a positive median T-O-X.

  1. Bukit Merah posted the highest median T-O-X. For HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in March 2015, Bukit Merah reported the highest median TOX of $7,000 followed by $6,000 in Serangoon.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns purchased units above the computer-generated market value.

  1. Among relatively active towns, Hougang, Yishun and Choa Chu Kang posted the most Negative median T-O-X. Among HDB towns having more than 10 resale transactions with T-O-X in March 2015, the lowest median T-O-X were in Hougang, Yishun and Choa Chu Kang at NEGATIVE $ 13,000, NEGATIVE $9,000, and NEGATIVE $8,500 respectively.

This means that majority of the buyers in these towns purchased units below the computer generated market value.